A "cute and ugly" elf doll was auctioned for a sky-high price of 1.24 million, celebrities are rushing to promote it, young people are trading in their iPhones for hidden editions, and Pop Mart's stock price has skyrocketed almost tenfold in a year... Labubu's frenzy is strikingly similar to the madness of NFTs in 2021. When trendy toys turn into a financial game, how long can this bubble last?
From "Toy" to "Social Currency": The Secret to Labubu's Viral Success
1. Rebel Aesthetics: The Emotional Outlet of Generation Z
Labubu's sharp fangs, heterochromatic eyes, and charming smile subvert the traditional cute aesthetic. Psychological studies show that this sensory paradox of "being so ugly it's healing" precisely hits the collective emotion of young people who are "anti-involution" and "socially anxious and slacking off." Just like the "true fragrance law" of stinky tofu, the weirder it is, the more it can become an identity label.
2. Blind Box + Stars: Dual Addiction Mechanism
Gambling-like thrill
The probability of hidden funds is as low as 1/144, with a repurchase rate exceeding 45%. Users experience a dopamine surge when opening boxes that rivals that of Las Vegas slot machines.
Star Power Sales Explosion
A phrase "My baby" from BLACKPINK member Lisa has increased the premium in Southeast Asia by 7 times; Rihanna carrying a Labubu hanging from her Hermès bag directly elevates it into the "luxury goods" hall.
3. Global Social Fragmentation
On TikTok, the unboxing video of #Labubu has surpassed 1 billion views. At the Bangkok night market, a hidden version was exchanged for an LV bag, and at Harrods in London, a "doll for a bag" event took place. Trendy toys have become a hard currency for socializing among young people. This viral spread is strikingly similar to the social flaunting logic of NFT players displaying their monkey avatars.
Labubu and NFTs: The Fatal Commonality of a Bubble Twin Flower
1. Same Style Speculation Formula
Celebrity Endorsement
NFT has Musk, Labubu has Lisa
Artificial Scarcity
NFT relies on the uniqueness of blockchain, Labubu relies on the "world's only" mint green auction.
FOMO Machine
Beeple's NFT sold for 450 million, Labubu uses 1.08 million to anchor the "value myth"
2. Emotional Economic Trap
Both are essentially a symbolic game where "consensus outweighs value." The lesson from the 90% drop in NFT monkey avatars reveals that when social sentiment wanes, assets lacking practical value will eventually be exposed. Although Labubu is a physical entity, its premium of tens of thousands has far exceeded that of gold, and the price fluctuations of 68% of the styles are comparable to Bitcoin.
3. Capital Drumming and Flower Passing
Scalpers use plugins to monopolize purchasing channels, investors hoard goods like they are speculating on Moutai, and brands deliberately control production capacity—within this game, those who genuinely pay for their passion have instead become the "reserve for chives."
The "Cautionary Tale" of Pop Mart: The MOLLY Bubble Has Already Sent a Warning
1. Short-lived Hot Product Curse
The collaboration between Molly and LV has been hyped up to tens of thousands, but the popularity of the new series only lasts for 6-12 months, and the current price of some styles has been cut in half.
SKULLPANDA's semi-annual resale price dropped by 40%, confirming the fragility of the lifecycle of trendy toy IPs.
2. Man-Made Scarcity's Fatal Flaw
Labubu's "limited edition" may expand production at any time. Once the brand mass-replicates to harvest the market, the collapse of trust will be more severe than NFTs—after all, monkey avatars cannot be replicated, but dolls can be produced indefinitely.
Labubu's Lifeline: Can Physical Goods Truly Escape the Fate of NFTs?
1. Entity ≠ Anti-dip
Although Labubu can be touched and modified, its core premium still relies on "social identity recognition." Once the trend-following leads to the disappearance of scarcity, the "潮玩中产" will collectively sell off, just as Tibetan mastiffs became hot pot ingredients back in the day.
2. The Only Lifeline: IP Contentization
Pop Mart is trying to upgrade Labubu from a "trendy toy" to a "cultural symbol": developing animations, collaborating with Coca-Cola, and planning a theme park. If it can become a cultural icon like Hello Kitty through 40 years of content accumulation, it might escape the bubble crisis. However, Labubu's "story power" is still stuck in aesthetic hype, light-years away from a true IP universe.
When the tide goes out, who is swimming naked?
The madness of Labubu is essentially a reflection of the low interest rate era where capital has nowhere to invest. When speculators use cryptocurrency trading logic to play with trendy toys, and when brands leverage hunger marketing to deplete user trust, the outcome of this game of passing the buck has long been predetermined.
The only suspense is: when the bubble bursts, will it leave behind a mess, or will it give rise to a true Chinese version of Sanrio? The answer may lie in whether Pop Mart can break free from the "marketing thrill" and truly inject lasting soul into Labubu.
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The Myth Behind Labubu: Will the New Trendy Toy Aristocrats Repeat the Mistake of NFT?
A "cute and ugly" elf doll was auctioned for a sky-high price of 1.24 million, celebrities are rushing to promote it, young people are trading in their iPhones for hidden editions, and Pop Mart's stock price has skyrocketed almost tenfold in a year... Labubu's frenzy is strikingly similar to the madness of NFTs in 2021. When trendy toys turn into a financial game, how long can this bubble last?
From "Toy" to "Social Currency": The Secret to Labubu's Viral Success
1. Rebel Aesthetics: The Emotional Outlet of Generation Z
Labubu's sharp fangs, heterochromatic eyes, and charming smile subvert the traditional cute aesthetic. Psychological studies show that this sensory paradox of "being so ugly it's healing" precisely hits the collective emotion of young people who are "anti-involution" and "socially anxious and slacking off." Just like the "true fragrance law" of stinky tofu, the weirder it is, the more it can become an identity label.
2. Blind Box + Stars: Dual Addiction Mechanism
The probability of hidden funds is as low as 1/144, with a repurchase rate exceeding 45%. Users experience a dopamine surge when opening boxes that rivals that of Las Vegas slot machines.
A phrase "My baby" from BLACKPINK member Lisa has increased the premium in Southeast Asia by 7 times; Rihanna carrying a Labubu hanging from her Hermès bag directly elevates it into the "luxury goods" hall.
3. Global Social Fragmentation
On TikTok, the unboxing video of #Labubu has surpassed 1 billion views. At the Bangkok night market, a hidden version was exchanged for an LV bag, and at Harrods in London, a "doll for a bag" event took place. Trendy toys have become a hard currency for socializing among young people. This viral spread is strikingly similar to the social flaunting logic of NFT players displaying their monkey avatars.
Labubu and NFTs: The Fatal Commonality of a Bubble Twin Flower
1. Same Style Speculation Formula
NFT has Musk, Labubu has Lisa
NFT relies on the uniqueness of blockchain, Labubu relies on the "world's only" mint green auction.
Beeple's NFT sold for 450 million, Labubu uses 1.08 million to anchor the "value myth"
2. Emotional Economic Trap
Both are essentially a symbolic game where "consensus outweighs value." The lesson from the 90% drop in NFT monkey avatars reveals that when social sentiment wanes, assets lacking practical value will eventually be exposed. Although Labubu is a physical entity, its premium of tens of thousands has far exceeded that of gold, and the price fluctuations of 68% of the styles are comparable to Bitcoin.
3. Capital Drumming and Flower Passing
Scalpers use plugins to monopolize purchasing channels, investors hoard goods like they are speculating on Moutai, and brands deliberately control production capacity—within this game, those who genuinely pay for their passion have instead become the "reserve for chives."
The "Cautionary Tale" of Pop Mart: The MOLLY Bubble Has Already Sent a Warning
1. Short-lived Hot Product Curse
2. Man-Made Scarcity's Fatal Flaw
Labubu's "limited edition" may expand production at any time. Once the brand mass-replicates to harvest the market, the collapse of trust will be more severe than NFTs—after all, monkey avatars cannot be replicated, but dolls can be produced indefinitely.
Labubu's Lifeline: Can Physical Goods Truly Escape the Fate of NFTs?
1. Entity ≠ Anti-dip
Although Labubu can be touched and modified, its core premium still relies on "social identity recognition." Once the trend-following leads to the disappearance of scarcity, the "潮玩中产" will collectively sell off, just as Tibetan mastiffs became hot pot ingredients back in the day.
2. The Only Lifeline: IP Contentization
Pop Mart is trying to upgrade Labubu from a "trendy toy" to a "cultural symbol": developing animations, collaborating with Coca-Cola, and planning a theme park. If it can become a cultural icon like Hello Kitty through 40 years of content accumulation, it might escape the bubble crisis. However, Labubu's "story power" is still stuck in aesthetic hype, light-years away from a true IP universe.
When the tide goes out, who is swimming naked?
The madness of Labubu is essentially a reflection of the low interest rate era where capital has nowhere to invest. When speculators use cryptocurrency trading logic to play with trendy toys, and when brands leverage hunger marketing to deplete user trust, the outcome of this game of passing the buck has long been predetermined.
The only suspense is: when the bubble bursts, will it leave behind a mess, or will it give rise to a true Chinese version of Sanrio? The answer may lie in whether Pop Mart can break free from the "marketing thrill" and truly inject lasting soul into Labubu.