Labubu and Moutai: A Comparison of New and Old Consumption Eras

Recently, the Labubu toy that has emerged in the market has been jokingly referred to as "the Moutai of young people". This analogy has sparked reflections on the old and new consumption patterns. A recent research report conducted an in-depth comparison of these two brands, attempting to reveal whether there is a historical replay of consumption cycles or a profound paradigm shift behind them.

Analysis shows that although Labubu and Moutai both possess the attributes of social currency, their social functions are fundamentally different. Labubu relies more on the shared interests and values of the younger generation, while Moutai is more based on traditional power and hierarchical relationships. This difference reflects the fundamental distinction between "new consumption" and "traditional consumption."

Research indicates that Labubu and Moutai are both facing dual challenges brought about by the IP cycle and investment attributes. For Labubu, a long gap between the current popular IP and the next blockbuster could affect the company's global growth rate.

In addition, regulatory risks and market congestion are two major factors that investors need to closely monitor. The current influx of capital into the "new consumption" sector is similar to the previous concentration of funds investing in consumer blue-chip stocks represented by Moutai, and this concentrated trading may have a significant impact on stock valuations.

Intergenerational Differences in Social Currency

Research suggests that although Labubu and Moutai both exhibit characteristics of social currency, they reflect different generational consumption concepts:

1. Social Attributes: Moutai is more of a symbol of power and hierarchy in social interactions, primarily used in business settings; Labubu represents the social needs of the younger generation based on shared interests and values, emphasizing emotional value and instant gratification.

2. Consumption Motivation: Moutai is often regarded as a "social tool", while Labubu meets the pursuit of emotional value and instant gratification by young people in the digital age, reflecting China's transition from investment-driven to consumption-driven.

3. Globalization Process: Moutai is deeply rooted in Chinese traditional culture, and its globalization is still in the initial stage; in contrast, Labubu has achieved significant success globally, aligning more with the current global trends.

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Dual Test of IP Cycle Risk and Investment Attributes

While experiencing rapid growth, Labubu and Moutai both face challenges brought by IP lifecycle and product investment attributes:

1. IP Lifecycle Risk: Moutai, with a hundred years of history and official endorsement, has proven its ability to cross cycles. In contrast, Labubu has a relatively short history, and its IP lifecycle remains a core risk.

2. The impact of investment attributes: The history of Moutai indicates that "investability" is a double-edged sword. It can drive growth in an upward cycle but may amplify risks in a downward cycle.

Research has noted that Labubu is actively managing the second-hand market prices to maintain its appeal to young consumers and create a favorable environment for the launch of new IPs and products.

Regulatory and Market Risks Not to Be Ignored

The report emphasizes that regulation and market sentiment are two major risk factors that investors must face.

1. Regulatory risks: Moutai has long been affected by price controls and anti-corruption campaigns. Similarly, Labubu also faces potential regulatory pressure. However, with the diversification of Labubu's consumer base and the expansion of its overseas business, its ability to withstand regulatory risks from a single market is strengthening.

2. Market Crowding Risk: The current phenomenon of capital concentration in the "new consumption" sector is similar to the previous influx of funds into consumer blue-chip stocks represented by Moutai. This concentrated trading may have a significant impact on stock valuations. Although recent changes in capital flows have put some pressure on "new consumption" stocks, this "crowded" situation may persist for a while in the context of the scarcity of quality investment targets.

Overall, the comparison between Labubu and Moutai not only reflects the generational changes in consumption patterns but also reveals the evolution of investment logic under new and old economic forms. While grasping emerging consumption trends, investors must also remain vigilant about potential risks and maintain rational judgment.