In this cycle, my experiences and lessons ( down )

Host: Alex, Research Partner at Mint Ventures

Guest: Colin, Freelance Trader, On-chain Data Researcher; On-chain Nomad, Professional On-chain Investor

Recording time: 2025.7.17

Hello everyone, welcome to WEB3 Mint To Be initiated by Mint Ventures. Here, we clarify facts, explore realities, and seek consensus in the WEB3 world through continuous questioning and deep thinking. We aim to elucidate the logic behind hot topics, provide insights that penetrate the events themselves, and introduce diverse perspectives.

Assessment of the Current Stage and Response Strategies

Alex: So let's move into the official chat segment for today. The first question is closely related to each of our current investment operations: what are your views on the current cycle stage? What stage do you think the current crypto bull market is in, whether for Bitcoin or other assets? Based on this judgment, what is your approximate strategy and position at the moment?

Colin: Okay. Personally, when defining the so-called Bitcoin cycle, I mainly use some indicators or signals from on-chain analysis, which I am more proficient in, to define whether we are in the early, middle, or late stages of the cycle. I still remember that the first time I participated in the program was in mid-February this year, and I talked about my views on this topic at that time. Today happens to be a good opportunity for a review. First of all, from the end of last year to the beginning of this year, I feel that BTC is very close to the end of this cycle. The reason is that signals that have appeared at every historical peak have already emerged. I know that many people may disagree with this logic because, according to the normal four-year cycle, the peak time should be around the end of this year, roughly from September to December. But I have previously written an article explaining this matter. If we go back to 2021, four years ago, the so-called first peak actually appeared in April because there were two peaks that year. Almost all peak signals occurred in April 2021, not the second peak in November. Currently, this cycle has once again played out a similar situation. I dare not say definitively that there will certainly be a second peak soon, but the current situation is almost identical to that time. This means that at the beginning of this year, we triggered almost all of the on-chain analysis peak signals that I monitor. At that time, it fell from a peak of about 110,000 to 74,000 in March and April, and then rose to the new high we have now. During the second peak in 2021, there were also some signals. Those signals were quite special because most of them had already triggered at the first peak. This includes divergences in capital inflow volumes, vertical rises, trends that don't retrace much or go sideways, and indicators like AVIV overheating, large concentrated realized profits, and divergences in RUP, etc. If we compare now with the second peak in 2021, all these signals have reappeared. Of course, each cycle is completely different. A very significant difference in this cycle is that there has been a structural change among participants. Simply put, many institutions have entered the market. Many companies are trying to set up Bitcoin reserves similar to MicroStrategy, and even recently, strategic reserves in Ethereum have started to appear. Based on my previous perspective of on-chain analysis to define the current phase of the cycle, I still tend to believe that we have already entered the end stage and are currently mirroring the second peak movement of 2021.

Under this premise, I will answer the second question, which is about the current positions and strategies. I mentioned earlier when I came on the show that I have a relatively conservative view for the entire year of 2025. Whether from some conditions within the circle or the entire macro market, for example, the tariffs imposed after Trump took office, the talk about firing Powell, etc., in such a big environment, the difficulty of operation will be much greater than in 2024. Regarding positions, I currently divide them into two parts: first is the Crypto part. At the beginning of the year, when BTC reached 103,000, I had already liquidated my positions and hedged with a 1x coin margin short position to earn annualized rewards, about 7%--10% in Funding Fee. Now the price has reached a new high, breaking through my initial exit point, and some bottom signals are starting to appear, but it has not fully formed yet. My current strategy is to adopt a low leverage short plan, with leverage expected to be controlled between 1.15--1.25 times. The other part is the US stock market. I am more laid-back about US stocks; I had already fully invested back in April this year. I remember mentioning this when I was on the show in May this year, and currently, there are no plans to change this part of the position. This is my overall view for now.

On-Chain Nomads: Alright, as the host just introduced, my trading style tends to focus on emotions and the market. I mainly share from a primary market perspective, as the secondary market part was covered quite professionally by guest Colin, and I don't have much experience to share regarding the secondary market. From a primary market standpoint, I can make a major judgment: it's definitely not a primary market bull market right now. It's been a little over two years since I entered in 2023, and I've experienced, for example, the time when BTC ecosystems were speculating on inscriptions, or when meme coins were being traded at the beginning of this year. It's very clear to see the external flow of capital entering this market, not only is there money being speculated within the market, but there is also external capital flowing into the primary market. This feeling is very evident. However, I believe this market is currently quite quiet, far from the feeling of a primary bull market. From the secondary market perspective, not just me, but many primary players, including those speculating on altcoins, share a common sentiment: this cycle of BTC and altcoins, or the primary market, is relatively disconnected. BTC is rising alone, and sometimes altcoins and the primary market do not follow BTC's upward trend at all. Therefore, this is how I analyze and determine my judgment on the primary market bull market. Regarding my positions, I currently have about 90% of my positions converted to USDT, leaving only 10% of BTC as a long-term hold, which I won't touch. I also do not plan to buy back at this position. Based on the information I've received, including traders who are doing exceptionally well in the secondary market, or some OGs from past crypto circles, the consensus I gather is that everyone has shifted from taking risks to a defensive strategy. My current state is also like this.

Alex: As a very active level one player, what is your current work status or daily time allocation like?

On-Chain Nomads: This is still related to the market. I pay more attention to on-chain liquidity. In the past week or two, on-chain liquidity has warmed up a bit, so I've also increased my working hours accordingly. When the on-chain activity was very quiet a while ago, I basically spent only an hour or two each day scrolling through information to see if there were any big opportunities worth participating in. Like the Pump a few days ago, I was paying attention and participated. But for some other on-chain PVP opportunities, I chose to give up. Because I think when doing level one, one must pay attention to the input-output ratio, that is, cost-effectiveness. Sometimes when the market trend is wrong or the timing is off, investing more energy can actually lead to losses.

Alex: This is also the basic state of those prominent players around you, or say the experts on the chain right now, isn't it?

On-chain Nomads: Yes, 0xsun once said a very classic line, "Main players do not play garbage time," similar to this meaning.

The change in investment difficulty during this cycle

Alex: Understood, let's talk about the second question of today. I know that Colin is an investor who has gone through several rounds of cryptocurrency cycles. For you, compared to the previous cycles, do you feel that the difficulty of investing in this cycle is higher or lower? What are the reasons behind it?

Colin: Okay. I personally feel that if we look at the entire market as a comprehensive assessment, there hasn’t been a particularly significant change in difficulty. Making money in the financial market has always been a very challenging task, especially when we aim to earn excess returns, also known as Alpha. As we just discussed, I believe that the most unique aspect of BTC in this cycle is its independent upgrade, which means it stands out on its own. It seems that it is the only one rising in the whole market, even ETH has been outperformed. Another rather strange situation is Trump's election, which led to a tariff war in 2025. These two events will have a significant impact on anyone operating in the market. As the market matures gradually, many relatively immature assets, which are those that can simply be heated up by capital alone, will be gradually eliminated. Therefore, I am not too surprised by BTC's independent upgrade. As for the tariff war, many people will care about it, but I think if you are a long-term investor in BTC, this matter is just noise. For example, if you are a holder who has held BTC since 2022, 2021, or even earlier without selling, then in this cycle, you might feel particularly satisfied. Because in the past few cycles, you may have held BTC while watching others' altcoins rise dozens or even hundreds of times, which can be psychologically disturbing. However, if today you are a holder who has not sold at all during this cycle, you will feel very content. For you, the difficulty may be lower. Because the BTC you hold has been rising, while other coins have not performed well, and some have even been in a downtrend. If we have to talk about difficulty, it will definitely increase as institutional players enter. Our opponents are no longer those old OGs or old whales, but those hedge funds or quantitative funds that have been rolling in the traditional financial market for decades. Their entry promotes market maturity, and the maturity of the market further attracts more institutions to participate, creating a cyclical process. The result of this process is that BTC's volatility will become much lower, and the difficulty of hunting Alpha will increase. But as I just mentioned, if you only want to earn BTC's Beta, which is simply buy and hold, then I think the current market difficulty will not significantly increase for you.

Alex: Understood. In fact, this episode is the second part of the theme "This Cycle, My Experiences and Lessons." In the last episode, I also invited two friends to discuss this topic, and their feedback was that this cycle is obviously harder. Colin's feedback was that it’s not too bad and not obviously harder. Between these two answers, we can compare and see that Colin's words contain a small hidden premise: if you are a BTC holder, you might feel that this cycle is not that difficult, or even possibly easier. Because most of the funding attention and improvements in fundamentals during this cycle are actually focused on BTC. However, for many investors seeking higher Alpha, especially in the first half of this cycle, many still placed their hopes on altcoins, but the performance of altcoins has not been good. So, I'd like to ask the on-chain community to discuss this further: how do you feel the difficulty level of this cycle compares to when you just started engaging with crypto assets in the last cycle?

On-chain Nomads: I think this is a particularly good question, especially for first-tier players. Sometimes when participating in the first tier, you will hear many different voices: some say that the first-tier market has become more difficult, while others will compare it to how it used to be. At this point, a very important word comes into play------bias. For first-tier players, bias can be very deadly. If you approach it with bias, you will be far from the opportunity to make money. Because in the first-tier market, you can always see those who are glorifying themselves on Twitter, regardless of the market situation.