Bitcoin cycle top may arrive by August as MVRV nears peak

Bitcoin is trading just under $119,000, with new on-chain data suggesting the current market cycle may be nearing its top, arriving as soon as late August or early September.

Summary

• Bitcoin’s MVRV 365DMA shows a pattern similar to the 2021 double-top, indicating a possible peak by late August.
• Macro tailwinds and Fed expectations are supporting price momentum.
• Technical indicators show consolidation, with room for both breakout and pullback scenarios.

In a July 28 analysis, CryptoQuant contributor Yonsei Dent pointed to the MVRV Ratio’s 365-day moving average as the key signal to watch. The MVRV Ratio compares Bitcoin’s (BTC) market price to the average cost at which all coins were last moved, helping to show how much profit holders are sitting on.

According to Dent, the indicator is approaching a level that previously marked major cycle tops. “In 2021, the MVRV 365DMA formed a double top. The second peak came about six months after the first and lined up closely with the bull market top,” he wrote.

A similar structure seems to be unfolding now, with the second peak likely to form around September 10, although the price top could arrive sooner, possibly in late August.

Despite being a lagging indicator, MVRV has a good history of identifying regions where the market gets overheated. Dent said this is a time for both optimism and caution, and that traders should focus on managing risk.

U.S.-EU trade deal boosts crypto market sentiment

Sentiment improved over the weekend after the U.S. and EU reached a trade deal, pushing Bitcoin back towards $119,000. Tariffs on European goods will drop from 30% to 15%, while Europe has committed to buying $750 billion in U.S. energy and investing in joint infrastructure projects. The news helped lift both stocks and crypto.

Traders are now focused on this week’s Federal Reserve meeting. Rates are expected to stay unchanged at 4.25%–4.50%, but markets will be listening for any hints of rate cuts later this year. If the Fed leans dovish, risk assets like Bitcoin could benefit.

Bitcoin technical analysis

Bitcoin is still consolidating, hovering just below the psychological $120,000 mark. Although the Bollinger Bands indicate that volatility is tightening, price action has remained above the 20-day moving average.

Bitcoin daily chart. Credit: crypto.newsWith the relative strength index down to roughly 61, momentum appears to be cooling but not necessarily reversing. The current setup permits a short pullback before any additional upward movement, though a breakout is still possible.

Bitcoin may rise toward $125,000 if it surpasses $120,000. However, there could be a decline to the $114,000 range if support at $117,899 fails to hold.