The largest "Triple Witching Day" in US stock history is approaching, and Bitcoin may continue to consolidate.

Market Observation

The Federal Reserve maintained its benchmark interest rate this week, but its overall stance is hawkish. Officials have differing views on future policy, with 10 expecting at least two rate cuts this year, while 7 believe rates will remain unchanged. Current inflation is close to the 2% target but has not yet been fully achieved. Economists warn that an early rate cut could lead to a rebound in inflation.

This Friday, approximately $6.5 trillion worth of US stock options and derivative contracts will expire, and this "Triple Witching Day" event may sow the seeds of volatility risks for the market next week. Analysts believe that this expiration date could become one of the largest expiration events in history, and investors should be wary of potential market volatility risks.

In terms of geopolitics, although the situation between Israel and Iran is tense, market sensitivity has decreased.

The chairman of a certain group stated at a recent salon event that the virtual asset industry has entered the second growth curve phase, with the industry's focus shifting from "digital native" represented by Bitcoin to "digital twin" represented by stablecoins and asset tokenization. He pointed out that digital twin is the biggest innovation of distributed ledger technology, with stablecoins and asset tokenization being the most representative forms.

Due to the U.S. holiday, the U.S. stock market was closed on June 19, and the cryptocurrency market showed very little movement, with the Bitcoin price remaining basically unchanged over the past three days, and liquidations in the past 24 hours totaling less than $100 million. Analysts point out that escalating geopolitical tensions have heightened investors' risk-averse sentiment, increasing the demand for traditional safe-haven assets such as gold and U.S. Treasury bonds, while the demand for risk assets like Bitcoin has decreased. At the same time, the Federal Reserve's decision to keep interest rates unchanged strengthens the dollar's performance, putting pressure on Bitcoin.

On the technical side, the price of Bitcoin is constrained by multiple moving average resistances near $106,000, with low market trading volume and the relative strength index close to the middle line, indicating strong market wait-and-see sentiment. In the short term, if it breaks through the moving average resistance, Bitcoin may have the opportunity to challenge the $112,000 high, but the current momentum is insufficient, and it may continue to consolidate.

According to data analysis platforms, since June, the market selling pressure on Bitcoin has continued. Although prices have recently rebounded, trading volume remains low, and there is insufficient upward momentum. If demand continues to weaken, Bitcoin may potentially dip to the support range of $94,000 to $97,000 in the short term, and the market needs more buying demand to support a breakout. Multiple analysis agencies have pointed out that the market is characterized by low volatility, narrowing price ranges, and weakening on-chain activity, with retail participation declining and institutional investors becoming the dominant force.

Solana is currently oscillating within the key support range of $140-145, regarded as a potential trend reversal point. Analysts indicate that the current price of SOL is $145.94, testing the golden Fibonacci retracement zone from 0.618 to 0.786, which has historically been seen as a strong trend reversal support area. Investors are advised to position long orders within the range of $128-140, with target prices of $204.31, $229.01, and $258.45 respectively. Another analyst stated that if the SOL price falls below the $140 support, it could trigger accelerated downward movement, targeting the $102-103 area, representing a decline of about 30%. Conversely, if it can break through the $160-170 range with increasing trading volume, it may reverse the current bearish pattern, with upward targets potentially reaching the $180-$220 range.

In addition, a Solana ETF submitted by an institution was registered with the DTCC on June 18, which is seen as preliminary preparation for ETF approval. Although regulators recently delayed a decision on another Spot Solana ETF, analysts believe the probability of approval remains as high as 90%, which could inject confidence into the market. The short-term performance of Solana will depend on the performance of the $140-145 support range and the market's expectations for ETF approval.

In the altcoin market, the MEME coin LABUBU has dropped 23% in the past 24 hours, marking three consecutive days of decline, with its market cap falling from a recent high of $60 million to $27 million. This drop may be related to the short-term collapse of Labubu's collectible toy prices. Within the Solana ecosystem, a certain crypto lawyer has proposed the idea of forking Solana and launched an experimental chain named Gorbagana, whose token $GOR once reached a market cap of $40 million and is currently reported at $33.35 million. Additionally, the market caps of $YOURSEL, launched by developers who gained attention from a well-known investor, and TikTok influencer dog $shiyo on Bonk also briefly reached around $2.2 million. In contrast, the popularity of Meme coins on Avalanche has cooled, with the newly launched $PUFF currently at a market cap of $3.6 million and $MEOW at $2.2 million.

Key Data

• Bitcoin: $104,658 (Year-to-Date +11.46%), Daily Spot Trading Volume $17.204 billion
• Ethereum: $2,520.03 (YTD -24.9%), daily spot trading volume is $9.922 billion
• Fear and Greed Index: 48 (Neutral)
• Average GAS: BTC: 1.58 sat/vB ETH: 0.33 Gwei
• Market share: BTC 64.1%, ETH 9.4%
• 24-hour BTC long-short ratio: 1.10206
• Sector fluctuations: AI Meme down 5.8%; DePIN sector down 2.72%
• 24-hour liquidation data: A total of 55,924 people globally were liquidated, with a total liquidation amount of 89.34 million USD, including 10.69 million USD in BTC liquidations, 18.12 million USD in ETH liquidations, and 5.38 million USD in SOL liquidations.
• BTC medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (106791.78 USD), lower channel line (104677.09 USD)
• ETH medium to long-term trend channel: upper channel line (2581.84 USD), lower channel line (2530.72 USD)

ETF Flow

• Bitcoin ETF: +$390 million (net inflow for 8 consecutive days)
• Ethereum ETF: +$19.0998 million (net inflow for 3 days)

Today's Outlook

• A certain platform will delist three spot trading pairs including CATI/FDUSD on June 20.
• A certain exchange will delist 8 spot trading pairs including ALCX, NULS, MDT, BORA, etc. on June 20.
• Lista DAO (LISTA) will unlock approximately 33.44 million tokens at 5 PM on June 20, which accounts for 19.36% of the current circulating supply, valued at around 7 million USD.
• SPACE ID (ID) will unlock approximately 72.65 million tokens at 8 AM on June 22, which is 16.88% of the current circulation, valued at around 12 million USD.

Today's Top 500 Market Cap Largest Gains

Threshold (T) rose by 23.55%, Joe coin (JOE) rose by 15.66%, StormX (STMX) rose by 14.77%, Sei (SEI) rose by 11.52%, Mythos (MYTH) rose by 9.51%.

Hot News

• Bitcoin on-chain transaction volume hits an 18-month low, the craze for Runes and Ordinals has cooled down.
• Semler Scientific appoints Bitcoin Chief Strategist, plans to hold 105,000 Bitcoins by the end of 2027.
• 49% of surveyed institutions globally have used stablecoins for payments.
• The Bitcoin reserve of the listed company has exceeded 768,500 coins, valued at over 8.2 billion dollars.
• Fidelity: The growth rate of "ancient supply" of Bitcoin that has not moved for over ten years has surpassed the daily new issuance.
• SOL Strategies submitted Form 40-F registration statement to the SEC of the United States, planning to list on Nasdaq under the code "STKE".
• LGHL has secured $600 million in funding from ATW Partners to launch the HYPE treasury.
• Fetch.ai will launch a $50 million FET token buyback plan
• The Federal Reserve continues to keep interest rates unchanged, still expecting to cut rates twice this year.