Weekly BTC Market Review and Outlook (February 10-16): Market sentiment is becoming optimistic, Bitcoin may break through the consolidation range.

This week, the opening price of Bitcoin was $96,481.47, and the closing price was $96,119.88, with a decrease of 0.37% for the week. The price fluctuation narrowed to 5%, and the trading volume significantly shrank. The price of Bitcoin remains within the range of $89,000 to $110,000.

Despite the release of several important economic data and events this week, such as the U.S. January CPI data, new tariff policies, and Federal Reserve Chairman Powell's congressional testimony, these factors did not cause significant fluctuations in the U.S. stock and cryptocurrency markets, possibly because the market had already absorbed this information in advance.

As the Russia-Ukraine conflict may head towards negotiations, market sentiment seems to be turning optimistic. The US dollar index has dropped significantly, US Treasury yields continue to decline, and US stock indices are rising, approaching historical highs once again. This suggests that the negative impacts of Trump's trade policies may be weakening, but further confirmation from the market is still needed.

Bitcoin is currently trading in the range of $89,000 to $110,000, with the price breaking below the second upward trend line and fluctuating narrowly around $97,000. It is expected that Bitcoin will make a directional choice in the short term.

Macroeconomic and Financial Data Analysis

The US January CPI data has significantly exceeded expectations. CPI rose 3% year-on-year and 0.5% month-on-month, higher than the market expectations of 2.9% and 0.3%. Core CPI increased by 3.3% year-on-year, also above the expected 3.1%. These figures indicate that the economy remains strong, with a certain rebound in inflation. As a result, the market has adjusted its expectations for interest rate cuts this year, currently leaning towards a single cut around December.

Federal Reserve Chairman Powell stated in his semiannual monetary policy testimony to Congress that if the economy continues to grow and inflation does not quickly return to the 2% target level, the Fed may maintain its current policies for a while. Conversely, if the labor market unexpectedly weakens or inflation declines more than expected, the Fed may continue to moderately ease monetary policy. This statement is largely consistent with previous positions, but given the current relationship between the government and the Fed, it may imply that the likelihood of interest rate cuts is low in the case of strong economic performance.

The Trump administration announced that it would implement "reciprocal tariffs" on all countries, but did not specify a start date, so the impact on the market is limited.

What is more noteworthy is that the Russia-Ukraine conflict seems to be on the verge of significant progress. Reports suggest that both parties are engaged in dialogue negotiations, which could have a positive impact on the global economy and financial markets.

As a result, the US dollar index fell by 1.22% to 106.813, and the yield on the 10-year Treasury bond dropped to 4.48%. All three major US stock indices recorded gains for the week, with the Nasdaq rising by 2.58%, the S&P 500 increasing by 1.47%, and the Dow Jones up by 0.55%. London gold rose by 0.75%, hitting a new high of 2942.60 dollars/ounce during the trading session.

Market Sentiment and Trading Data

This week, the selling pressure in the Bitcoin market has significantly eased, with long-term and short-term investors collectively selling 137,178 BTC, a substantial decrease compared to last week. During the same period, the trading volume on exchanges has also shrunk considerably, indicating that short-term panic selling has drastically reduced. Currently, the average profit level for short-term investors has dropped to 6%, and there is not a strong motivation for either taking profits or cutting losses.

Long-term investors paused selling this week, increasing their holdings by 8,000 Bitcoins.

Stablecoins and Bitcoin spot ETFs, as well as Ethereum spot ETFs, saw a total outflow of $252 million throughout the week. Among them, stablecoins had an inflow of $362 million, while Bitcoin spot ETFs and Ethereum spot ETFs experienced outflows of $584 million and $29 million, respectively. The outflow of funds from the ETF market was the main reason for Bitcoin's underperformance compared to U.S. stocks last week.

According to a certain analytical institution's Bitcoin cycle indicator, the current value is 0.75, indicating that the market is in an upward phase.

In general, although the Bitcoin price is still fluctuating in the short term, with the improvement of the macroeconomic environment and the warming of market sentiment, Bitcoin may soon welcome a breakthrough market. Investors should closely monitor the development of economic data and geopolitical situations in order to adjust their investment strategies in a timely manner.