On-Chain Data Suggests Bitcoin Breakout as Investor Confidence Holds Firm

Key Insights

• Bitcoin has shown strength nand has recovered to around $107,000 despite political tensions from the middle east and economic uncertainty.
• Bitcoin's weekly close above $104,500 established a strong technical support level, which shows an incoming upside if the $100,000 range holds.
• The current 10% price range between $102,000 and $112,000 creates a possibility of a sharp price movement in either direction.
• Both retail and whale investors are holding their Bitcoin positions, in a show of increased patience in long-term gains.
• A possible "short squeeze" in the derivatives market could trigger a massive Bitcoin price increase.

Headlines around the world have started to reflect the political tension, just as Israel and Iran fire airstrikes against one another.

The economic uncertainty has affected the general financial markets somewhat. However, the crypto market, led by Bitcoin, is showing some encouraging resilience.

After the cryptocurrency dropped briefly due to the middle eastern turmoil, Bitcoin appears to have bounced back strongly and is trading around $107,000 at the time of writing.

This recovery, alongside institutional inflows shows that better days are coming, and the market could be headed for a massive breakout soon.

Bitcoin’s Steady Climb

Bitcoin’s recent weekly close above $104,500 was more than just a psychological win.

It confirmed a strong technical support level around this zone, and market analysts see this price point as a foundation for more upside.

This means that if the bulls continue to defend the $100,000 range, then Bitcoin could be on its way toward its previous highs.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading within an interesting 10% range, which is a narrow band between $102,000 and $112,000.

This kind of price compression tends to lead to sharp moves in either direction, and traders are keeping an eye on liquidity zones, just above or below the current price.

Put simply, what happens next with Bitcoin will depend strongly on which support or resistance breaks first.

Liquidations And Best Performers

Liquidations over the last 24 hours before writing have been just shy of $300 million, with the bulls losing $154 million and the bears losing $124 million according to Coinglass.

This stands as a major step-up over the last week, where the bulls lost more than $500 million on both 12 and 13 June.

Some of the most popular altcoins that performed well over the last week include $AERO, Hyperliquid’s $HYPE, Uniswap and Aave, in a particularly green week for defi coins.

The losing side included Injective, Celestia, Worldcoin, Render, Quant and ImmutableX according to CoinMarketCap data.

Inflation, Oil Prices and the Fed

Zooming out, Bitcoin is also trading under the influence of macroeconomics.

For example, the Federal Reserve is preparing for an interest rate meeting soon.

And even though a rate cut before September appears unlikely, all eyes are on what the FED chair Jerome Powell has to say about future monetary policy.

At the same time, the rising and commodity prices are a major source of inflation fears.

Notably, this could be a mixed bag for Bitcoin because while inflation tends to drive interest in hard assets, aggressive monetary tightening could reduce investor appetite for risk.

Still, some analysts believe that the market has already priced in many of these geopolitical risks.

Whales and Retail Investors Are All On Board

One of the most interesting trends in the current market is the shared behavior between retail investors and the whales.

So far, both groups are holding their positions tightly, with on-chain data showing that exchange inflows have slowed since the bull cycle began.

This trend shows a pivot from previous cycles, especially in late 2024, when both whales and retail traders sold off as Bitcoin reached new highs.

Now, market investors seem more patient and confident in long-term gains.

Over the past year, more than 550,000 BTC have been withdrawn from spot exchanges, which has reduced the available supply and reinforced a bullish setup.

More interestingly in the derivatives market, the gap between spot and futures prices could be setting the stage for a massive price increase soon.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin’s price on perpetual futures contracts is lower than on spot markets.

This is a sign that institutional players are either placing short bets or hedging massively.

As a result, if this dynamic flips and futures prices rise above spot, it could trigger a “short squeeze” and force traders who bet against Bitcoin to buy back in quickly.

As always, the crypto market moves fast. But for now, all signs point to a bullish continuation, and a belief that Bitcoin’s best days may still be ahead.

Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.