Bitcoin Could Miss Its Next ATH, Say Bitfinex Analysts

Key Insights

• Bitcoin is near its ATH but is lacking in strong bullish momentum while trading sideways.
• Long-term holders' decisions to sell or hold will be a major factor in Bitcoin's next price phase.
• The absence of a catalyst makes it more risky for a short-term Bitcoin price correction.
• A break above $112,000 could trigger a short squeeze and launch Bitcoin higher.
• There are both upside and downside risks, and investors should be aware of both.

Bitcoin is pacing just shy of its record high. However, analysts are warning that price alone is not enough to push the top cryptocurrency into clear-skies.

Here’s why the coming weeks may be important for Bitcoin, and what it might take to overcome the $112,000 resistance.

Bitcoin Hovers Near Its Peak, Yet Momentum Feels Thin

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $109,500, roughly 2 percent below its all-time high of $111,970.

This price increase comes amid the recent bottoming of Bitcoin between February and April, when the cryptocurrency pulled back towards $78,500.

This means that anyone who bought that dip now sits on gains of almost 40%.

Despite this comeback, the bullish narrative appears to have cooled.

Since clearing $100,000 in early May, price action has flattened into a range. According to recent insights from Bitfinex researchers in a report, the market is “churning sideways.”

This means that so far, neither bulls nor bears have seized control.

Long-Term Holders At a Crossroads

Sideways trading is not merely a chart pattern. It is a test of conviction.

According to blockchain data, a massive supply of Bitcoin last moved in the first quarter of the year, when prices were far lower.

The current price action of Bitcoin now indicates that those investors must now choose whether to secure profits, or stay the course and hope for another leg higher.

The Bitfinex analysts noted that the distribution from these long-term holders could determine what happens in the next phase.

If they sell en masse, fresh supply could overwhelm demand and force Bitcoin into a deeper pullback.

If they hold or even accumulate, the limited float could set the stage for the next breakout.

A Correction Risk Rises Without a Catalyst

Every bull trend eventually needs fuel. In previous cycles, catalysts ranged from ETF approvals to monetary policy changes.

However, at present, there has been no similar spark, which is a fact that has troubled market watchers.

“The risk of a short-term correction continues to build,” the Bitfinex team warned, pointing out that a strong move above the $112,000 high looks unlikely without fresh fundamental support.

Historically speaking, this caution makes much sense. After hitting $73,679 in March 2024, Bitcoin spent months coiling between $53,000 and $73,000 before fresh enthusiasm entered the picture again late in the year.

Something similar to this cooling period is now in play, and it could reset the overheated sentiment while providing a healthier base for future rallies.

Short Sellers Are Walking a Tightrope

While spot buyers are debating on profit-taking, derivatives traders are looking towards some serious risk.

According to CoinGlass, roughly $1.08 billion in short positions will be liquidated if Bitcoin hits its old high.

These forced buy-backs tend to accelerate upside moves, which means that a small spike above $112,000 could snowball into a mega rally towards the next psychological resistance around $120,000.

However, there are still a few things to note.

For example, short interest indicates that many traders still doubt how sustainable the current Bitcoin price is.

As such, if bulls cannot push higher soon, the bears may gain confidence and drive the market back toward the mid-$90,000s.

For now, investors must remain patient and disciplined, while maintaining proper risk management. A breakout past $112,000 could still arrive with massive speed. However, a pullback could create a sharp drop towards five-figure territory.

In other words, Bitcoin is again reminding everyone that with massive price increases come massive risks.

Disclaimer: Voice of Crypto aims to deliver accurate and up-to-date information, but it will not be responsible for any missing facts or inaccurate information. Cryptocurrencies are highly volatile financial assets, so research and make your own financial decisions.